Insights

Latest insights

Regional focus: ChinaUS-China trade war optimism to continue – but for how long?

After the stress of August, it appears as though sentiment towards the US-China trade war has entered a new phase.

SONIATwo new heavyweights join the Risk Free Rates scrum

Our Risk Free Rates Calculator now also supports SOFR, €STR and a variety of additional calculation options

Global outlookThe bad news cycle isn’t getting any worse or better – it’s just shifting

As the end of the year looms closer, Jim McCormick, Global Head of Desk Strategy, outlines three evolving macro themes for the months ahead.

Interest RatesSeize the opportunity to offer longer fixed rate mortages and scrap ERCs.

Low interest rates create an opportunity for lenders to launch longer-dated fixed rate mortgages and scrap Early Repayment Charges.

Market infrastructure & regulationLIBOR on the ropes but when is the knockout blow?

With all the talk on fallbacks, pre-cessation triggers and term rates you might think we were approaching the end game for London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR). But is the industry clear how LIBOR will be dealt its knockout blow, or how it will stagger on?

Market infrastructure & regulationLIBOR – Back to the future

Lots of excitement in GBP Basis of late after the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) finally launched the consultation into the fallback parameters – responses due 23 October, so expect results a few weeks later.

ESG/SustainabilityGrowing the ESG product suite

While sustainable finance for many people is still synonymous with green bonds, over recent years we've seen widespread innovation within the ESG financial product spectrum.

Global outlookls global growth poised to weaken further? Yes.

Against the current backdrop of central bank action and a resurging demand for fiscal policy, the global slowdown is a hot topic for investors. Here’s why we see weaker growth manifesting across the key regions in the coming year.

ECBRelease the pressure: Why Europe’s power players must now act to ease fiscal constraints

At September’s meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), the call for more fiscal policy was loud and constant. The word ‘fiscal’ came up again and again.

Monetary policyThe time wasn’t right for the Bank of Japan. All eyes on October.

As expected, the Bank of Japan bucked the global trend for stronger easing and made minimal changes when they met on Thursday 19 September. Why, and what does this mean in practice? And which decisions are on the horizon?

GeopoliticsBrexit Tracker: The rocky road to a General Election

The Brexit process is approaching a crucial phase. Here’s what we are tracking – and expecting – over the next few weeks.

ESG/SustainabilityAsia: The ESG nexus moves East

It never fails to surprise people that the biggest market for green bonds is China with a total green bonds volume of over $110 billion (Dealogic).

Market infrastructure & regulation20 months since MiFID II – what’s changed?

Is fixed income voice execution on an unstoppable path to extinction? Or can it just adapt to this new normal with greater efficiency?

Monetary policyIs the euro in safe hands?

In the past, the People’s Bank of China had the potential to alter the euro’s direction, but this looks set to change. Here we explain how and why,

Market sentimentChanging seasons: What’s the outlook for the rest of 2019?

The first half of 2019 was a pretty unique period for financial markets. And so much for a ‘quiet summer’ – August volatility was the equivalent of a perfect storm…

ESG/SustainabilityClimbing the foggy mountain of sustainability

We’ve recently seen laudable initiatives to develop a universal green language such as the EU taxonomy, which provides detailed eligibility criteria for economic activities that...

Regional Focus: ChinaStress over China reaches new highs

NatWest Markets’ proprietary China Stress Index is used to measure investor sentiment towards China. Since Monday 5 August, the Index has continued to climb… What’s troubling investors?

Market infrastructure & regulationLoan market IBOR credit adjustment - look forward before you look back

On 7 August 2019, the Loan Markets Association (LMA) published a guidance note highlighting considerations in respect of the application of credit adjustment spreads in the context of the move from LIBOR to near risk-free rates.

GeopoliticsItalian government crisis explained: Political timeline and market outlook

A political crisis in Italy is now in full swing. When will there be an election? What impact does this have on the outlook for the Italian economy and markets?

Market Infrastructure & RegulationThe EU benchmark space is getting a bit crowded

So what are the plans for all these benchmarks jostling for attention? We set out below some of the key changes coming down the line...

Market infrastructure & regulationDelay? What delay? Margin final phase kicked out by a year

With many market participants wrestling with the final phase of margin requirements for non-centrally cleared derivatives for next year, the market has been thrown a lifeline through an additional phase in 2021.

Market infrastructure & regulationWhat blockers do our customers have to SONIA adoption?

Calculating compounded realised rates can be a challenge. Whilst the Quants are familiar with the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) formula...

Market infrastructure & regulationHas the loan market "realised" SONIA's potential?

In March, we highlighted that whilst the derivative and bond markets had made great progress in embracing SONIA, the loan market was yet to…

Our voiceGFXD event highlights career opportunities for women in FX

Simon Manwaring, opened the “Next Step FX: Promoting Career Opportunities for Women in Foreign Exchange” event.

ESG/SustainabilityGreen halo 2.0

It has been rewarding to see that the “Green Halo effect”, which we at NatWest Markets first introduced in early 2018 has become part of common market parlance.

Regional focus: USGlobal trade off: economy slips as protectionism rises

The economic impact of the trade war (thus far) has been limited, due largely to efforts by the Trump Administration to avoid tariffs on consumer-related goods.

Monetary policyThe Fed: Rate cuts in 2019

Employment growth cooled noticeably in May, supporting our view that the Fed will cut rates in 2019, lowering the funds rate by 25 basis points at both…

Regional focus: ChinaIntroducing our China Stress Index

A new proprietary index from NatWest Markets charts investor concerns regarding China. Even early results already make for fascinating reading.

ESG/SustainabilityA green prospectus make-over

“How do I know whether this bond is green?” is a recurring question I get asked. Your typical port of call – the prospectus – does not always offer solace.

Regional focus: USRisky assumptions putting markets at risk?

As trade tensions between the US and China rise, and doubts grow about the sustainability of the US expansion and the recovery in Europe…

ESG/SustainabilityGreeniums and “Halo” effect – green bonds make financial sense

I took part in a panel at this year’s Climate Bonds conference, discussing the latest evidence around green bond pricing in the primary and secondary markets.

ESG/SustainabilityLitigation fears reduce green issuers’ appetite for the US market

“Why is the $ green bonds market still so small?” is a question clients regularly ask us, pointing to the fact that while the US is the world’s leading green bonds issuer...

LIBORIBOR transition - fasten your seatbelt it could be a bumpy ride

As we wrote in February post an FCA speech, the ‘do nothing’ strategy of waiting for fallbacks could result in market chaos.

US Federal ReserveEquity market remains resilient despite recession fears

The Fed has lowered its growth outlook for the US Economy, and in March signaled an expectation they will likely not raise rates again this year...

LIBORIBOR reform: ringing the bell for the end of term?

As reiterated by the FCA last month, the production of LIBOR is likely to end in 2021 and all markets need to transition to the….

TechnologyNew horizons and the human touch

When NatWest Markets lifts its eyes to the horizon, what does it see? It sees emerging, disruptive technologies in the distance...

Market infrastructure & regulationMargin for non-cleared - €8bn or €50m?

Following on from my recent Margin & Clearing note there seems to be signs of pragmatism through an IOSCO statement yesterday.

Market infrastructure & regulationKick-start your international expansion now - a simple guide

With 70% of European online shoppers buying products from international retailers, selling cross-border seems a compelling proposition.

ESG/Sustainability“The green heart of UK debt investors”

Sustainability is becoming increasingly core to the operations of top tier UK debt investors. This is the key takeaway from meetings we have held…

Market infrastructure & regulationMargin & clearing regulation: close but no cigar?

Behind the scenes the industry is scrambling on readiness for the final phases of Initial Margin and EMIR Clearing. There is however confusion on…

Monetary policyFOMC Statement: Our view

This week the Fed surprised markets with a very dovish message, signalling policy could be on hold for an extended period.

GeopoliticsThe US-China Trade Relationship: What next?

The US-China trade relationship has been steadily deteriorating since early July of 2018, when President Trump finally followed through on threats to impose…

ESG/SustainabilityMexico City Airport: “The green bond that was no longer”

When Mexico City Airport Trust issued $6 billion of green bonds in 2016 and 2017 in order to finance the construction of a new airport...

ESG/SustainabilityA case of “green humbug”?

In recent weeks we have noticed a fresh wave of concerns and mixed perceptions around the Green Bond Market, which can be broken into four key themes...

ESG/SustainabilityNew SNAM framework and the green-gas debate

As “browner” sectors continue to find appropriate ways of embracing sustainable finance, it is worth highlighting a new landmark framework…

ESG/SustainabilityThe green bond wave

October has seen a wave of green bonds, lifting the volume of green issuances in the third quarter of 2018 to USD 29.7 billion. The very busy month has helped to boost the total of green bonds issued this year to USD 108.3 billion, less than 1% behind the 2017 figures for the same period.

ESG/SustainabilityWhat’s up with ESG ratings? Better access to the capital markets, that’s what.

Dr Arthur Krebbers, explains why companies should consider their Environmental, Social and Governance profile as a core part of…